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MLB trade deadline dominoes for 10 biggest names on 2026 market

Good luck predicting the 2026 MLB trade deadline. With chaotic wild-card races in both leagues, we could see a busy trade deadline if front offices step up and take some risks. Or a slow one if everyone decides to hold onto their players.

Last year's deadline got some buzz when the Arizona Diamondbacks slumped at the end of July and decided to trade Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor and Merrill Kelly, adding some decent names to an otherwise soft class of trade candidates -- and the Minnesota Twins' decision to trade almost half their roster also added to the excitement.

There are several teams in a similar position this year -- starting with the Detroit Tigers -- so we might see more major leaguer-for-major leaguer trades, like the one between the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals that saw Connelly Early exchanged for Curtis Mead.

Jeff Passan's final trade deadline preview is out, so let's use the intel he has to get into some trade dominoes and see how the deadline might unfold for some of the biggest names, starting with a two-time Cy Young winner and one of baseball's best pitchers.

Last year, six of the 10 players we listed were traded; in 2024, it was seven of 10 -- although, nailing the exact team isn't quite so easy. Let's see how we do this year.

Skubal remains the fulcrum of the entire trade deadline, the clear difference-maker who can not only impact the race to reach the playoffs, but the postseason itself. Keep in mind, however: While Skubal is the top player who might get traded, the top player isn't always traded.

In 2023, the Los Angeles Angels decided to keep Shohei Ohtani at the deadline for a fruitless run at the postseason (they only fell 16 wins short). In 2024, Garrett Crochet was the top target, but the Chicago White Sox held on to him until the offseason. Last year, it was Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore; Ryan is still with the Twins (although they traded everyone else at the deadline) while the Nationals held Gore until trading him in the ensuing offseason to the Texas Rangers.

Unlike Crochet, Ryan and Gore, however, Skubal is heading to free agency after this season. The Tigers face one of the most difficult deadline decisions in years given their place in the standings and Skubal's trade value. You wonder whether Wednesday's loss made the decision a little easier, when the Tigers blew a 7-0 lead to the Orioles -- with Skubal on the mound.

If he is traded, the Los Angeles Dodgers loom as the betting favorite to land him. No doubt Ohtani's lingering biceps soreness will factor into the Dodgers' thinking. The Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees have been mentioned as possibilities, and Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn't afraid to make a big move, like he did last year in acquiring Jhoan Duran.

But let's start our dominoes with a different team: the Braves. History indicates the biggest trades usually involve teams already in first place; front offices are reluctant to give up top prospects just to chase a wild-card spot. Think of 2021, when the New York Mets traded Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez and didn't even make the playoffs. So that probably eliminates the Yankees and Phillies as Skubal landing spots.

The Dodgers, Brewers and Rays all have better farm systems than the Braves -- but Atlanta does have the best pitching prospect among the four teams in Cam Caminiti, and the Tigers would likely want a young pitcher in return. The Braves also have the more acute need for a starter: Their rotation hasn't been nearly as good in June and July as it was in April and May. Adding Skubal to a rotation with Chris Sale would make for a lethal one-two punch for the playoffs.

Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos has been reluctant through the years to trade prospects like Caminiti, but that's who it might take to land Skubal.